We’re back home this Sunday – starting and finishing at the Eugene
Running Company. As the week before last, you go longer than the marathoners
(11 miles versus seven). This is your longest before the Cottage Grove Half.
The route: Oakway and Coburg Roads to Ferry Street Bridge and
don’t cross. Turn right onto bike path, to Valley River footbridge and across.
To Autzen footbridge and across, to end of path at Autzen Stadium. Turn AROUND
there and come back the same way: Autzen footbridge, Valley River, Ferry and
store. GPS distance is 11.10 miles.
Bring a drink for delivery at Ferry Street (four and seven miles).
Weather forecast: starting temperature in 30s with rain likely and some snow
possible.
WEEK SEVEN LESSON: YOUR
POTENTIAL
Question: What
can I expect my half-marathon race time to be?
Answer: The best predictor of the final race result, I’ve found with previous marathon and half teams, is the pace of the longest training run. For a half-marathon, for instance, a runner who trained at 9:00 per mile (for the 11 miles at which our program peaks) can expect to finish the race at very close to that pace. Nearly all of our runners come within 15 seconds, plus or minus – or 8:45 to 9:15 in this example. As with any reliable gauge, this one isn’t based on what you dream of maybe doing someday but instead on what you really have done lately. I don’t say this to drain any of the mystery or surprise from your racing. Mainly I want you to know going into the race what a smart starting pace for you will be. Running at that rate early will assure a better finish.
Answer: The best predictor of the final race result, I’ve found with previous marathon and half teams, is the pace of the longest training run. For a half-marathon, for instance, a runner who trained at 9:00 per mile (for the 11 miles at which our program peaks) can expect to finish the race at very close to that pace. Nearly all of our runners come within 15 seconds, plus or minus – or 8:45 to 9:15 in this example. As with any reliable gauge, this one isn’t based on what you dream of maybe doing someday but instead on what you really have done lately. I don’t say this to drain any of the mystery or surprise from your racing. Mainly I want you to know going into the race what a smart starting pace for you will be. Running at that rate early will assure a better finish.
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