October 30th Preview

Ten miles this Sunday. To insure against falling short of double figures, I’ve added a bit to that distance. This includes miles one, six and seven, 12 and 13 of the EWEB race course.

Sunday’s route (starting from the Eugene Running Company at eight o’clock): Oakway and Coburg Roads to Ferry Street Bridge and don’t cross. Turn right onto bike path, to Valley River footbridge and across. Turn left, past Ferry Street, to Autzen footbridge. Turn AROUND at brick crosswalk, and go back the same way: Valley River, Ferry and store. GPS distance is 10.15 miles.

Bring a drink for delivery at EWEB race start/finish, about 4.5 and 5.5 miles. Weather forecast: starting temperature in 50s with rain likely.

WEEK 7 LESSON: YOUR POTENTIAL

Question: What can I expect my half-marathon race time to be?

Answer: The best predictor of the final race result, I’ve found with previous marathon and half teams, is the pace of the longest training run. For a half-marathon, for instance, a runner who trained at 9:00 per mile (for the 11 miles at which our program peaks) can expect to finish the race at very close to that pace. Nearly all of our runners come within 15 seconds, plus or minus – or 8:45 to 9:15 in this example. As with any reliable gauge, this one isn’t based on what you dream of maybe doing someday but instead on what you really have done lately. I don’t say this to drain any of the mystery or surprise from your racing. Mainly I want you to know going into the race what a smart starting pace for you will be. Running at that rate early will assure a better finish.