July 5th Preview

Another hot weekend coincides with the longest run of half-marathon training (at 11 miles). And with the holiday, and with Butte to Butte (both on Saturday). I won't try to talk you out of celebrating in your own way, but only say that Sunday's run will go ahead as planned for anyone who wants to take it.

It starts at 7:30 from the Eugene Running Company and goes: Oakway and Coburg Roads to Ferry Street Bridge and turn left onto bike path. To Autzen footbridge and across. Turn right, to Owosso footbridge and across. Back to Ferry Street and store. GPS distance is 10.96 miles.

Bring a drink for delivery at at three (Ferry) and 6.5 miles (Owosso). Weather forecast: starting temperature in 60s, rising toward the day's high in 90s, and partly cloudy.

WEEK 7 LESSON: YOUR POTENTIAL

Question: What can I expect my half-marathon race time to be?

Answer: The best predictor of the final race result, I’ve found with previous marathon and half teams, is the pace of the longest training run. For a half-marathon, for instance, a runner who trained at 9:00 per mile (for the 11 miles at which our program peaks) can expect to finish the race at very close to that pace. Nearly all of our runners come within 15 seconds, plus or minus – or 8:45 to 9:15 in this example. As with any reliable gauge, this one isn’t based on what you dream of maybe doing someday but instead on what you really have done lately. I don’t say this to drain any of the mystery or surprise from your racing. Mainly I want you to know going into the race what a smart starting pace for you will be. Running at that rate early will assure a better finish.